Forecast assumption soundchecks

Client Question A global pharmaceutical company sought independent validation of its Japan revenue forecast assumptions for a Phase III asset ahead of key internal decision milestones. Our Approach We conducted a structured review of the client’s forecast model, assessing core assumptions including: • Target population sizing and epidemiology inputs • Treatment algorithm positioning • Expected uptake and market penetration curves • Pricing assumptions and comparator anchoring risk • Access dynamics and potential payer constraints All inputs were cross-checked against local secondary sources to identify inconsistencies and gaps. We then conducted targeted interviews with Japanese clinicians and payer stakeholders to validate: • Real-world prescribing intent and line of therapy positioning • Adoption barriers and enabling drivers • Perceived differentiation versus existing options • Realistic pricing expectations within the current NHI framework Outcome We delivered revised, evidence-based forecast assumptions with explicit rationale and risk grading. This provided the client with greater confidence in its Japan revenue projections and clearer visibility on upside and downside scenarios ahead of internal investment decisions